Falling shingle shipments point to a tougher roofing market
U.S. asphalt shingle shipments fell 13% in the third quarter, while home improvement spending is expected to grow slowly. Roofing owners can use the signals to protect cash flow and keep repair work moving.
Roofing contractors are facing a cooler residential market. U.S. asphalt shingle shipments fell 13% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year, according to Roofing Contractor, citing the Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association.
Shipments totaled about 35.2 million squares, down from about 40.4 million a year earlier. Through September, shipments were down 7.3% from the first nine months of 2025. The third-quarter drop was steeper than the 4.7% decline reported for the second quarter.
The figures do not show exactly why shipments fell. Shipment timing, inventory levels, reroofing demand and product mix can all affect the totals, and the association’s report does not identify the cause. Shipments also are not a direct count of completed roofing jobs.
New home building is under pressure
The residential slowdown shows up in other measures, too. Builder confidence in newly built single-family homes fell to 29 in October, its lowest level since June 2012, according to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.
Builders cited mortgage rates, material and energy costs, affordability concerns and weaker buyer traffic. In the October survey, 43% of builders said they had cut home prices, while 65% reported offering sales incentives.
That matters to roofers who rely on new construction, but new homes are only one source of work. Reroofing and repairs also drive demand, so the shipment decline should not be treated as a direct forecast for every local roofing business.
Repair work may not lift the whole market quickly
The broader home improvement outlook also points to slow growth. Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies expects annual spending on home improvements and repairs to stay relatively flat through late 2027, according to Roofing Contractor.
The center projects year-over-year growth of 1.5% by the third quarter of 2027, with annual spending around $525 billion. That forecast covers home improvement and repair work overall. It is not specific to roofing, so it cannot say how much work any one contractor will see.
Not every roofing segment moved in the same direction. U.S. modified bitumen shipments rose 17% in the third quarter, while built-up roofing shipments rose 25%. But year-to-date built-up roofing shipments were still down 4.3%, showing how one strong quarter can sit inside a weaker longer-term trend.
Nonresidential construction has been stronger than residential activity in 2026. Dodge reported that nonresidential building starts were up 23.7% by value through September, with commercial and industrial starts up 46.3%. Those figures cover a wider range of building types and roofing systems, so they are not a direct comparison with asphalt shingle shipments.
What owners can do this week
A softer market is a reason to review the work already in the pipeline, not to assume demand has vanished. Owners can take a few practical steps now:
- Check open estimates and follow up with homeowners who asked for a repair or replacement quote. Ask whether timing, cost or scope is holding up the decision.
- Review shingle and other material orders against confirmed jobs. Avoid tying up cash in stock that may sit, while checking lead times for products needed on scheduled work.
- Keep repair calls and maintenance work visible in the schedule. The market reports include reroofing and repair, but do not predict local demand, so track which jobs are actually coming in.
- Look at the customer mix. If new construction makes up most of the backlog, contact property owners, past customers and local commercial prospects about repair needs and upcoming work.
The data point to a residential market under strain, but they do not determine what happens on a contractor’s route. Owners can use them as a prompt to check backlog, costs and lead sources, then make choices based on their own job counts and cash needs.